Combat modeling of remotely targeted vehicles and a battery against a moving target

This paper considers a combined system composed of multiple stand-by remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) and a single battery against a single passive enemy target, where the target, if not killed, is allowed to change its location after each attack. The RPV has the duty to report on target acquisition, to confirm a target kill, and to pass information on any change in target location after each battery attack. The battery has the duty to attack the target on the basis of the target location information provided to it by the RPV. We develop a closed-form expression for the time-dependent state probabilities of the system, which can be used to compute several important combat measures of effectiveness, including (a) the time-varying mean and variance of the number of the RPVs being alive and of the surviving enemy target, (b) the mission success, mission failure, and combat draw probabilities, and (c) the mean and variance of the combat duration time. Illustrative numerical examples are solved for these combat measures, and sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to target acquisition time and target kill probability. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 645–667, 1998     

三轴稳定拦截器常值推力姿态控制系统优化设计

针对大气层外拦截器常值姿态控制问题,设计了一种"数字变推力"姿态控制系统。通过对拦截器动力学环节合理简化,应用线性二次型最优控制理论(LQR),设计出连续型角度最优控制律,并依据廉价控制、昂贵控制等原则,选择合适的加权矩阵推导出控制量的解析表达式;根据PWPF((Pulse Width Pulse Frequency)调制原理,将用连续推力设计最优控制律用于常值推力发动机,实现了"数字变推力"姿态控制系统设计;考虑燃料消耗及PWPF线性工作区要求等应用PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization)优化算法对PWPF调制器参数进行了优化设计和仿真。仿真结果表明了该设计方法的有效性及工程应用价值。     

基于AUML的装备维修保障系统建模

AUML(Agent Unified Modeling Language)是一种基于扩展UML的多Agent系统建模方法。针对当前基于Agent的装备维修保障系统建模存在的不足,尝试采用AUML技术来实现对装备维修保障系统的建模。通过组织目标分析,建立了系统的角色模型,采用Agent类图和扩展的UML顺序图分别建立了装备维修保障系统的静态模型和动态模型,较好地描述了系统中各Agent的结构及其交互关系。     

基于IP网的地空电台语音网关设计与实现

根据战场环境下地空不间断话音指挥的应用需求,提出了基于IP网的话音电台组网方案,设计并实现了基于M PC 860T嵌入式处理器和V xW orks实时操作系统的语音网关设备。介绍了该语音网关的硬件设计和软件设计,详述了分组话音协议模块的功能实现。     

基于遗传算法的MIL-STD-188-220c标准最佳转发树的构造

针对MIL-STD-188-220C标准的路由协议多目的地址最佳转发树问题,提出一种基于遗传算法的优化算法,仿真结果表明,该算法具有收敛快,寻路成功率高的优点。     

导弹武器战斗能力评估的指数方法

根据导弹武器战斗能力量化评估的需要,分析了导弹武器战斗能力的影响因素,运用量纲分析理论,分层次建立起了战斗能力指数评定模型,并对各子指标的量化进行了分析.以这种评价方法得到的"指数",反映问题直观、简单,适合于敌我双方实力的对比,并且与指挥员习惯相一致.     

RAISING THE COST OF REBELLION: THE ROLE OF THIRD‐PARTY INTERVENTION IN INTRASTATE CONFLICT

This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson‐Grossman (2000 Gershenson, D. and Grossman, H.I. 2000. Civil conflict: ended or never ending?. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6): 807–821.  [Google Scholar]) framework of conflict in a two‐stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three‐stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b Chang, Y.‐M., Potter, J. and Sanders, S. 2007b. War and peace: third‐party intervention in conflict. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(4): 954–974.  [Google Scholar]), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government’s potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter‐governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third‐party intervention deters rebellion.     

THE LONG‐RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GDP IN TAIWAN

Using the Solow–Swan growth model and the time‐trend included in the aggregate production function, this study applies the multivariate cointegration approach to re‐investigate the long‐run and causal relationships between defence expenditures and GDP while controlling for capital and labour input in Taiwan during the 1955–2002 period. It examines the long‐run causal relationship using the weak exogeneity test and utilizes general impulse response functions to determine whether a shock to defence expenditures affects economic growth or vice versa. Our findings provide substantive evidence in favour of the existence of a long‐run equilibrium cointegrated relationship between defence expenditures, GDP, labour and capital stock. The results of the weak exogeneity test indicate that a bi‐directional causal relationship exists in the long‐run between defence expenditures and GDP. Thus, the main policy implication that emerges from the long‐run results is that increasing defence expenditures in Taiwan is an effective means to boost overall economic performance and, with this improved economy, it should then be able to increase its defence expenditures further. Lastly, from our dynamic vector error correction model estimations, it is found that defence expenditures are a major means of adjusting for disequilibria that occur within the system.     

Guns for Butter? Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract

This study examines the causal nexus between defence spending and education expenditure in China using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The full-sample result indicates that there is no causality between defence spending and education expenditure. By adopting a time-varying rolling window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies a negative unidirectional causality running from education expenditure to defence spending. The finding suggests that it is the education expenditure crowds out defence spending in China rather than reverse. No causality is demonstrated from defence spending to education expenditure, indicating that an increase in military spending will not crowd out expenditure on education. The results could be partly explained by that the education expenditure in China is below the requirement of corresponding economic growth, urging for more financial budget. Whereas the findings support a negative trade-off between defence and education expenditures, they refute the theory of ‘guns for butter’.     

自由漂浮空间机器人关节故障锁定位置辨识

针对自由漂浮空间机器人在关节故障情况下关节锁定位置的辨识问题,根据其线动量守恒和角动量守恒特性,建立了关节故障锁定位置辨识的误差模型,提出了利用混沌粒子群优化(CPSO)搜索关节故障位置的辨识算法。最后采用虚拟样机技术,建立了空间机器人系统的虚拟样机,对空间机器人系统进行动力学仿真,获取了运动数据,采用此数据对提出的关节故障位置辨识算法进行了有效性验证。